Garland, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

225
FXUS64 KFWD 070759
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
259 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend with heat
  index values up to 105.

- An unsettled pattern will continue this weekend with storm
  chances both Saturday night and Sunday night. Some severe
  weather is possible including the threat for damaging winds.

- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
  with near or below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 131 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

There have generally been two main areas of convective
development this evening: (1) Southeast CO and (2) Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle and West Texas. While the supercells south of the quasi-
stationary surface boundary between these two areas have weakened
as they encountered increasing convective inhibition, the storms
to the north/northwest have grown upscale into a larger complex
over northwestern Oklahoma. This activity is expected to follow a
fairly similar track to that of Friday morning`s convective line
through the remainder of the overnight period. We have maintained
low PoPs (~20-30%) in the areas adjacent to the Red River and our
far northeastern zones between 12-18Z (7AM - 1PM CDT) as this
activity moves off to the east.

A residual southward-moving outflow boundary may push into North
Texas (likely remaining north of the I-20 corridor) after sunrise.
Hot and humid conditions will persist today, with highs in the
low to mid 90s and dew points in the lower 70s, resulting in heat
indices generally between 98 F and 103 F. These conditions will
contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE values ranging
from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Effective shear is forecast to be around
25 to 35 knots, sufficient to support organized convection, should
it develop. While the aforementioned boundary could serve as a
focus for isolated thunderstorm development during peak heating,
weak upper-level support and lingering stability in the wake of
the morning MCS may inhibit diurnal storm development.

However, embedded in the northwest flow aloft another shortwave
trough is expected to traverse the Southern Plains later this
evening/tonight. This feature, combined with a weak southward-
moving cold front and the persistent West Texas dryline, will
likely provide sufficient lift and convergence to initiate and
sustain convective activity north of I-20 toward the Red River
overnight. A few of these storms may be severe. Damaging wind
gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with any severe
thunderstorm that develops. Sunday will generally be hot, humid,
and rain-free behind any remnant morning convection, with heat
index values climbing up to 105 F during the afternoon. As a
reminder, there is both temporal and meteorological criteria for
a Heat Advisory and the current forecast does not meet this
criteria.

The boundary layer will destabilize through the afternoon amid
strong surface heating while northwest flow aloft increases.
Thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the cold
front in the Texas Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma with rapid
upscale growth as the developing complex surges southeast towards
the Red River in the early evening. See the long term discussion
below for more on this.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night and Beyond/

By Sunday evening, rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place
across much of North Texas with moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg along and north of the I-20
corridor. It is uncertain if more discrete activity will be able
to develop late Sunday afternoon/evening in the vicinity of any
outflow boundaries laid out by the Sunday morning activity with
the greater synoptic-scale ascent remaining northwest until later
in the evening. However, if any isolated activity can initiate
near the Red River Sunday evening, it will have the potential to
produce severe weather. High-resolution guidance is in larger
agreement that a rather substantial mesoscale convective system
will make its origin over the OK/TX Panhandles and shift southeast
through the evening. A 30-40kt low-level jet will maintain this
thunderstorm complex into North Texas generally after ~8PM and
then East Texas by early Monday morning. The environment will
support bowing segments capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
isolated hail, and even a few QLCS tornadoes. The severe threat
will likely maximize along/north of I-20 and along/west of I-35
before the complex encounters less instability and more convective
inhibition.

A remnant outflow boundary will likely remain settled over parts
of Central Texas and provide a focus for additional thunderstorms
late Monday afternoon and evening. The overall weather pattern
looks to remain quite active through the remainder of the week
with potentially another period of heavy rain and severe weather
returning by the late Tuesday-early Thursday timeframe. Make sure
you are tuned in to the forecast over the next several days as we
navigate this active, early-June pattern.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 131 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025/
/06z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions prevail with south winds generally less
than 10 kts. MVFR stratus spreading across Central Texas may
affect Waco for a few hours after sunrise (12-15Z). The developing
convective complex moving across southwestern Kansas and the
TX/OK Panhandles will move east-southeast across Oklahoma over the
next several hours. This activity is still likely to remain well
north of the TAF sites. Additionally, guidance has backed off on
the potential for the outflow (N-NW wind shift) associated with
this complex reaching the Metroplex airports. We could see winds
veer slightly to the southwest (200-240) for a few hours later
this morning but a flow change is not anticipated. Additionally,
the probability of convection developing in the vicinity of any
lingering outflow boundaries during the afternoon remains too low
to warrant any inclusion in the TAF with this update.

The next opportunity for thunderstorm development will be late
Saturday into early Sunday north of east of the North Texas TAF
sites along a southward-moving cold front. There remains a
considerable amount of uncertainty related to the spatial coverage
and track of these storms so no mention will be included at the
D10 TAF sites until there is a better consensus.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  76  95  71  86 /   5  20  10  70  50
Waco                93  75  94  72  90 /   0   5   0  30  30
Paris               91  71  90  68  83 /  30  50  10  70  50
Denton              93  72  94  68  84 /  10  20  10  80  40
McKinney            93  74  92  69  84 /  20  30  10  70  50
Dallas              95  76  96  71  86 /   5  20  10  70  50
Terrell             93  74  92  70  86 /   5  20  10  60  50
Corsicana           94  76  94  73  89 /   0  10   5  40  40
Temple              95  74  96  73  92 /   0   5   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       96  72  96  69  86 /   0  10  10  70  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$